Noble Indy a Belmont 2018 pace challenge for Justify?

Earlier Friday, it was announced WinStar Farm’s Audible would not contest the 2018 Belmont Stakes against Triple Crown hopeful Justify. But a new name emerged in Noble Indy, who is co-owned by WinStar and Repole Stable.

Noble Indy worked a swift half mile in company with Todd Pletcher stablemate Vino Rosso, covering a half mile in 47.04 seconds. Vino Rosso reportedly began the breeze behind, caught up quickly, and then ran in tandem with Noble Indy the rest of the way.

Noble Indy is an interesting addition to the June 9 Belmont, and his consideration begs the question how how he’ll influence the race’s pace with Justify expected on the early lead.

In normal races, this horse is capable of fast fractions. Just look at the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds, where Noble Indy sat off a longshot named Marmello who opened in 22.91 and 46.61 for a nine-furlong race. TimeformUS gave the leader opening pace figures of 143 and 140, with the second number marked red for its speed..

Eventual Preakness runner-up Bravazo, who tracked them in third, could not keep up with the hot pace and quit entering the far turn.

In Noble Indy’s previous races, he did not contest such heated fractions. But he is always up front, either contesting the lead or just behind the leaders. Plus, he wears blinkers now, though Pletcher said those could come off stretching out in the Belmont to 1 1/2 miles. Unless something strange happens, Justify should get company.

Is it that simple, though? A speed horse shows speed on paper, so he will use it in the race? Well, in this situation WinStar also owns part of Justify, which might throw some changes in strategy into the equation. There is a human element involved with pace analysis.

Think about Quip, also owned by WinStar, as he failed to press leaders Justify and Good Magic in last Saturday’s Preakness Stakes. Granted, Quip never experienced that swift of a pace before, so perhaps he simply failed to get out quick enough to join those two leaders in the slop.

As unfair as this sounds, though, some handicappers speculated Quip only entered the Preakness as insurance in case Justify misfired. He lost by more than 45 lengths, which is strange for a horse of his talent. He came out of the race OK, and is pointing toward a summer campaign.

If the Justify/Quip situation sounds unfair to the bettor, the other side of the argument is that horse players had the chance to predict WinStar would not jeopardize Justify’s chances. These possible games are just part of handicapping.

The situation with Noble Indy might be a little different because Mike Repole is the partner this time, while both Justify and Quip are co-owned by WinStar and China Horse Club. If Repole enters the Belmont, his home Triple Crown race, he will want to win.

Also, considering Repole has a stake in Vino Rosso as well, he will want some kind of pace up front to help his own horse. If there is some kind of discussion over whether to rate Noble Indy, it is not likely Repole will just roll over easily and let them dictate.

On the other hand, Repole could understand the importance being fair to all parties, and not wanting to send Noble Indy on a suicide mission. Pressuring a super longshot at Fair Grounds is one thing. But Noble Indy cannot directly challenge Justify and hold on late at 12 furlongs.

As it stands right now, the Belmont needs a horse like Noble Indy to get brave and utilize his speed because there is a lack of pace. Bravazo, Tenfold and Restoring Hope are more likely to stalk up close rather than press the leader, while Blended Citizen, Hofburg and the Vino Rosso are all probable to come from behind. Bandua from Europe is a bit of an unknown factor, while Gronkowski is too slow to affect anything.

Then again, in a 1 ½-mile race, running style can change because horses are not used to going this long. Closers could find themselves nearer to the lead.

But the race is void of flashy types who can latch on to a leader and contest a fast pace, which will make it a shame if Noble Indy finds himself mid-pack.

In the end, it might not matter anyway whether Noble Indy is sent, because Justify could draw outside again as he has done for the past few races. If he does, then jockey Mike Smith can judge what’s happening inside the dual classic winner before positioning his horse.

If Justify draws the rail, though, Smith may want to send his horse to establish position, and he will feel more pressure up front with Noble Indy to his right breathing down his neck.

That’s assuming Noble Indy sticks to his normal style. Justify may handle the adversity, too.

There is no definitive way to tell right now how Noble Indy will affect the pace, or if it will matter considering Justify survived both the Derby and Preakness scenarios. The human element to pace handicapping is something no computer system or Pace Projector can analyze. This race is for the Triple Crown, and WinStar will make Justify winning a priority.

But even without Audible to challenge, Noble Indy could provide Justify one more hurdle to jump before gaining legendary status.